Annual Earnings Projection
Model end-of-year revenue impact based on patient adherence drop-off over 12 months.
EOY Earnings
$
Cost per Script
$
Month 1 Fill Rate
%
Month 12 Fill Rate
%
Total # of Scripts
850,000
Based on EOY ÷ cost per script
Total Potential Loss by EOY
$-1.53B
Sum of monthly revenue shortfalls
Monthly Decline Rate
3.43% pts
Adherence drop per month (pts)
Daily Loss (Month 1)
$-2.0M
Revenue lost per day in month 1
Month-by-Month Adherence Breakdown
Scroll horizontally to view all 13 months (M0–M12)
| Metric | M0 | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | M7 | M8 | M9 | M10 | M11 | M12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fill Rate % | 100.00% | 70.00% | 49.70% | 46.27% | 42.84% | 39.41% | 35.98% | 32.55% | 29.12% | 25.69% | 22.26% | 18.83% | 15.40% |
| Actual Scripts | 198,575 | 139,002 | 98,692 | 91,881 | 85,070 | 78,258 | 71,447 | 64,636 | 57,825 | 51,014 | 44,203 | 37,392 | 30,581 |
| Monthly Income | $198.6M | $139.0M | $98.7M | $91.9M | $85.1M | $78.3M | $71.4M | $64.6M | $57.8M | $51.0M | $44.2M | $37.4M | $30.6M |
| Potential Loss | $0 | $-59.6M | $-99.9M | $-106.7M | $-113.5M | $-120.3M | $-127.1M | $-133.9M | $-140.7M | $-147.6M | $-154.4M | $-161.2M | $-168.0M |
| Daily Loss | $0 | $-2.0M | $-3.3M | $-3.6M | $-3.8M | $-4.0M | $-4.2M | $-4.5M | $-4.7M | $-4.9M | $-5.1M | $-5.4M | $-5.6M |
| Total EOY Loss | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | $-1.53B |
Quarterly Revenue Analysis
Break down revenue and adherence loss by quarter using actual reported earnings.
Q1 Earnings
$
Q2 Earnings
$
Q3 Earnings
$
Q4 Earnings
$
Cost per Script
$
Month 1 Fill Rate
%
Month 12 Fill Rate
%
Q1
$3.31B
1,103,333 scripts | 1,994,336 prescribed
Q2
$2.91B
970,000 scripts | 2,461,304 prescribed
Q3
$3.84B
1,280,000 scripts | 4,395,604 prescribed
Q4
$4.10B
1,366,667 scripts | 7,257,922 prescribed
Total EOY Earnings
$14.16B
Sum of all quarterly revenues
Total Annual Scripts
4,720,000
Sum of quarterly script volumes
Total Potential Loss by EOY
$-34.17B
Sum of all monthly revenue shortfalls
Monthly Decline Rate
3.43% pts
Adherence drop per month (pts)
Quarterly Adherence & Loss Breakdown
Month-by-month analysis grouped by quarter — scroll horizontally
| Metric | Q1 (M1–M3) | Q2 (M4–M6) | Q3 (M7–M9) | Q4 (M10–M12) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | M7 | M8 | M9 | M10 | M11 | M12 | |
| Fill Rate % | 70.00% | 49.70% | 46.27% | 42.84% | 39.41% | 35.98% | 32.55% | 29.12% | 25.69% | 22.26% | 18.83% | 15.40% |
| Actual Scripts | 465,345 | 330,395 | 307,593 | 351,474 | 323,333 | 295,192 | 476,923 | 426,667 | 376,410 | 538,538 | 455,556 | 372,573 |
| Monthly Income | $1.40B | $991.2M | $922.8M | $1.05B | $970.0M | $885.6M | $1.43B | $1.28B | $1.13B | $1.62B | $1.37B | $1.12B |
| Potential Loss ($) | $-598.3M | $-1.00B | $-1.07B | $-1.41B | $-1.49B | $-1.58B | $-2.96B | $-3.12B | $-3.27B | $-5.64B | $-5.89B | $-6.14B |
| Loss in RXs | -199,434 | -334,384 | -357,186 | -468,961 | -497,101 | -525,242 | -988,278 | -1,038,535 | -1,088,791 | -1,880,769 | -1,963,752 | -2,046,734 |
| Daily Loss ($) | $-19.9M | $-33.4M | $-35.7M | $-46.9M | $-49.7M | $-52.5M | $-98.8M | $-103.9M | $-108.9M | $-188.1M | $-196.4M | $-204.7M |
| Total EOY Loss | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | $-34.17B |